Latest News (hidethedecline)
Colder Arctic melt season temperatures - prognose 2010 - 6 days to go
|Posted by Frank Lansner (frank) on 12th August, 2010|
|Latest News (hidethedecline) >>|
UPDATE: 18/8 DMI average Arctic temperature 80N-90N ended as coldest on record since 1958: 0,34 K
UPDATE: 14/8 Estimate now 0,365 C after DMI has updated. Coldest on record so far. 3 days to go.
UPDATE: 12/8 Estimate now 0,395 C after DMI has updated. Coldest on record so far.
The DMI Arctic melt season temperature maybe headed for all time record low.
Prognosis, 2010 average temperature in Arctic 80N-90N read from DMI: + 0,405 C
Since i have read the data from screen, the 0,405 C is not precise, but judge for yourself. Here the DMI curve for 2010. On top is a grid where 1 degree Celsius is repersented by the thick horisantal lines. Dotted horisontal lines represents 0,2K. Vertical dotted lines indicates days, 66 in all.
CLICK to enlarge!
Here is the day for day values estimated by me:
Im sure that i did not do this "perfectly", but so far no one has shown that DMI data 1993 - 2010 is not in fact significantly cooling for the Arctic 80N-90N area in the melt season. And as shown in my last writing, this does contradict GISS data projected from land over the Arctic area for June and July.
The present prognosis of 0,4 C : The last 6 days of the melt period is taken as if they would show normal temperatures - the green line. Unless the current cold trend changes dramatically, we may very well end up with an Arctic melt temperature below 0,4 C in 6 days.
Last changed: 18th August, 2010 at 23:14:58Back
|What data?||By Unknown on 26th August, 2010 at 19:52:10|
|Why do you call the DMI ouput data, when it is a modelled temperature?
Calculation of the Arctic Mean Temperature
The daily mean temperature of the Arctic area north of the 80th northern parallel is estimated from the average of the 00z and 12z analysis for all model grid points inside that area.
|Helpful!||By Unknown on 17th August, 2010 at 20:25:22|
|Very useful presentation of the melt season data, Frank. thanks.|
|Tipping point :-)))||By Unknown on 14th August, 2010 at 09:39:48|
|What a nice angle to this, RACookPE1978! Off course, this still colder 80N-90N without any doubt shows a tipping point, a death spiral, a point of no return!!!
LOL K.R. Frank Lansner
|And the Ice Age Commeth ... (before their fall ?) by RACookPE1978||By Unknown on 14th August, 2010 at 03:46:05|
|Based on the current "average" 80 degree north temperature of only 0.4 degrees C ....
And an increasing cooling trend of Arctic summers since 1958 ....
Should we predict that within 20 years (2020 to 2030 timeframe) there will be "no melting" summer season at all across the majority of the Arctic Ocean?
If so, is this the "tipping point" that begins the upcoming Ice Age - now 2000 years overdue?
|Mr Gee.||By Frank Lansner on 13th August, 2010 at 10:16:41|
|Goto DMI site
compare 2010 with 1993. If you think the down trend is my "fiddling" you are blind.
If you have the capacity to point out anything wrong in the procedure, please do so.
|Canadian||By Unknown on 13th August, 2010 at 01:33:42|
|Gee - couldn't you fiddle with this data and make it look like Al Gore's and Suzuki's hockey stick? - only pointing down.|