Peter Sawyer still owes me $1000 after the gold futures investment that he encouraged his subscribers to invest in, didnt work out too well. He said that he sold out of it and that a 10% loss was incurred..however he only ever returned 30% of my money and kept the rest for himself in spite of my numerous polite requests for it. Therefore I dont think anything of his reports . He has no credibility after what he did to a loyal subscriber at the time....how many others got stung I wonder
Did you read the Paper "Strong Alpine glacier melt in the 1940s due to enhanced solar radiation"?
You didn’t read the paper, did you? In “Strong Alpine glacier melt in the 1940s due to enhanced solar radiation” is stated: “Between 1960 and 1980 high cloudiness, low global radiation and low air temperatures in the European Alps [Auer et al., 2007] are in line with strongly reduced glacier melt rates (Figure 3), resulting in a short period of balanced mass budget of mountain glaciers worldwide [Kaser et al.,2006]. The enhanced greenhouse effect of terrestrial radiation and the brightening of solar radiation since the early 1980s induced higher air temperatures [Wild et al., 2004; Philipona et al. , 2009] and increasing snow and ice melt over the last decades approaching the maximum of the 1940s (Figure 3a).” It is clearly shown in the paper, that alpine galciers are melting as fast as they were in the 1940s although the shortwave Radiation input is on an average 7% lower in the 2000s than in the 1940s. Astonishing how you state “Glaciers have a complicated life. But if glaiciers are in fact used to determine global warming, there is nothing in the retreat speeds indicating that is should be warmer today than 1940.” If you read eh paper you obviously missed the point Ohmura et al. made.
"The urban areas are too small to have any impact on global warming. "
If the thermometers ARE IN THE CITIES then its the city temperature that counts. Is it that hard to understand?? /Frank
It make no sence about UHI
It's amazing that you can repeat the nonsense about UHI. The science of UHI and global warming has been settled for at long time. The urban areas are too small to have any impact on global warming. In addition, the rate of increase of temperature in the cities and rural areas are the same. It is possible that in the future we may see an effect, when urban areas are growing significantly with the earth's population growth.
Hi There - i did not get your name, but youare very welcome to email me concerning the visit to the Australian National libray. I will giver you some advise etc. Then, the Adelaide back to 1800: I dont remember having used data that old, but my data source is GHCN V2 raw for RUTI: Australia. Actually its not that rare that official data sources of temperature data seems to stitch datasets rather "freshly"... K.R. Frank
TO Mi Cro
Thanks a lot for the kind words, i have checked out your site and it looks very cool indeed. Keep up the good work !! K.R. Frank
Ruti - Adelaide data
Very interesting work you are doing, and it has once again peaked my interest. Having looked at the various Adelaide temperature data sets, I was curious as to where you located the "Adelaide Airport" data, dating back to the late 1800's. Could be wrong, but I dont think we had need of an airport before we had aeroplanes! So what is the data you are using? I am thinking of taking up your challenge to visit our central library and check out some of the original manual records. Has some one already done this that has been in contact with you yet?
Hi Frank, Your article was just pointed out to me, excellent work! I've been working with NCDC's Global Summary of Days data set, and have found that when you use their adjusted data, but look at the day over day changes on a station by station basis, there's no warming trend. I have a number of articles I've put together, the latest is below, you might find some of it interesting. You can contact my by clicking on my name there, and then emailing me. Good Luck with your work! http://www.science20.com/virtual_worlds/blog/global_warming_really_recovery_regional_cooling-121820
It is difficult to understand what the result af all this work is..
No matter how much work Frank Lanser has done, something is missing. No links to data are shown. Therefore data can’t be read in order to control the graphs and the related conclusions. It is virtually certain that misunderstanding and misinterpretation is always present in an analysis. When a link data is missing there will be a lack of credibility. Climate skeptics have repeatedly accused climate scientists not make data available to the public. When they publish something themselves, there is no link to the data they have used. That's what you call hypocrisy! What is the conclusion this analysis?
Is there a way to subscribe to new posts to your site via RSS?
Dear Peter Azlac!!
I have not been working with this site for a very long time and so I first see your comment now. First of all, thankyou very much for refering to My work in many places. You suggest that i use an already known approach to devide geographical areas when estimating temperature trends for regions. I started out doing so (see RUTI South Africa) but i fast came to the conclusion that temperature trends simply dictate that areas should be different than in already known works. BUT! in fact, the concept of having an area defined as being in shelter of ocean air is actually used here and there. I have seen it in a Danish writing from 1945 and in an East German Writing from 1964 and more. I simply need areas of similar temperature trends to be able to remove outliers, see wrong adjustments etcetcetc. And try perhaps to read the end of the conclusion "Original Temperatures: Discussion and conclusion". I hope you will check out the new "Original Temperatures" writings and see if you can follow why I do as I do? K.R. Frank , and again thankyou so much
Dear Antero Järvinen!
Thankyou so much for your kind words. And it seems you know why this work is important to do before original data are lost for good. Pretty much like the Taliban that crashes unique statues because they dont fit into their religion, then priceless original climate data are dissapearing because they dont support the beliefs of some. I ask of everyone to check out what data are available in their respective national libraries and national archives and mail the material to me. Antero, please mail me regarding the German data and I will explain the situaion. K.R. Frank Lansner
Iceland Met Office Data
Iceland Met Office publishes monthly and annual averages online at en.vedur.is/climatology/data/ See also: http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2013/12/25/nasa-fixed-that-nasty-1930s-arctic-warmth/#comment-303403 Can you please provide a link to the German data?
Extremely valuable and important work! Thank you very much! Antero Järvinen
Ruti and Climate Zones
Hi Frank I should have logged in. Unknown is peter azlac
RUTI and Climate Zones
Hi Frank In recent comments I made at other blog sites, I referred to your RUTI project and how it made more sense than working on mythical global data produced through homogenization and krieging. As an agricultural scientist I was making the point that for mankind the most important aspect of climate change is food production and water supplies and that the impact of climate forcing by the Sun via events in the stratosphere and ocean cycles is on changes in the the extent of the climate zones as defined in the Köppen+ Geiger system. This has also come up in respect to the new Pages2K huh hah in which the climate evangelists are trying to resurrect the Mann Hockey Stick for AR5 as a mean of regional hockey sticks linked to regional paleo proxy data. But this is surely wrong since they take N America as one region whereas the Köppen+ Geiger system shows it as several, and the same is true of other regions. In my view the proxy data can only refer to the climate zone in which it is found. As an example I gave the varve data for northern Norway that can be linked to the Arctic climate zone, including Greenland and which clearly shows that this zone was 3 to 9 C warmer some 1000 years ago whereas GISS and other climate evangelists are claiming Greenland as the poster child for current CAGW. My views are supported by the findings of Clive Best linking surface temperature to surface moisture values both of which are features of the Köppen+ Geiger classification. What I am leading up to here is a suggestion that for RUTI, instead of your present system of selecting your similar areas you do so on the basis of the Köppen+ Geiger climate zones and that you compare what you get as the zonal temperature trend since records were available with any local proxy data + you can see many of these graphed at WUWT. This would be far more useful than the current attempt to evaluate everything globally or regionally.
It's all because of gravity
It's not just a standstill. It's a 30 year natural slight decline from 1998 to 2028. Read what Geoff Wood (qualified in astrophysics) has explained .. http://www.drroyspencer.com/2013/01/waste-heat-as-a-contributor-to-observed-warming/#comment-68988 The following are excerpts .. "As Doug has said about a dozen times, gravity modifies the mean free path between collisions. That is ‘every’ upward, ‘every’ downward ‘every’ sideways, ‘every’, ‘every’ free molecular path between collisions is modified. Therefore it is impossible for the modified ‘collisions’ that result, not to impart the gravitational ‘information’ into the macroscopic development of the gravitational thermal profile. This is the ‘diffusion’ process. "At this point, we have a reasonable depiction of the thermal profile of ANY atmosphere. FROM BASIC PHYSICS. "Given a simple reason why any atmosphere tends towards this isentropic profile as depicted and described by entry level physics, why would anyone look for a more complicated reason to explain what we already know!" The point which Geoff and I make is that the "33 degrees of warming" supposedly caused by water vapour and carbon dioxide etc was already there due to the effect of gravity on the atmosphere. This happens on all planets, and also fully explains why the poles of Venus are over 720K, even though they receive less than 1W/m^2 of direct insolation from the Sun. For more detail read my article "The 21st Century New Paradigm Shift in Climate Change Science" easily found with Google. I've also recorded an introductory 10 minute video here http://youtu.be/r8YbyfqUvfY Doug Cotton http://climate-change-theory.com
I'd like to second the response from the previous commenter : "Could you please update this page showing the September 2012 coverage" ? And then please re-evaluate the "decline" some people seem to want to "hide"... ?
greenhousegas or not
dear admin, Dr David Evans started his first video with the sentence, "yes, CO2 is a greenhousegas", without saying why. I have the feeling, that this is a political statement and not a scientific and for that reason the "skeptic" are devided in two groups. and the realists, who want a proof for it, or who don`t see such an effect physically are treated "politically" as "deniers" etc. From the logical point of view, its a contradiction to claim such an effect, but to say quantitative determination of this effect is impossible. So for me, I am really not interested in any "realist" who beleaves in an CO2-greenhouse-effect on earth surface, if there is no correlation at all. So discussion should concentrate not in how much, but in yes or no regards an excuse my bad english Paul from Germany
theory and reality
If the atmosphere could warm the surface on earth, surface temperature of earth had to be higher than on moon without atmosphere. The contrary is measured. Also the old tests of WOOD 1909 show, that atmosphere cooles the surface of earth by convection. regards Paul
Breaking News - National Academy of Sciences
All should read the breaking news here, from which I quote: " This story is huge. America’s prestigious National Academy of Sciences (NAS) and related government bodies found no greenhouse effect in Earth’s atmosphere. Evidence shows the U.S. government held the smoking gun all along – a fresh examination of an overlooked science report proves America’s brightest and best had shown the White House that the greenhouse gas effect was not real and of no scientific significance since 1979 or earlier." For those who have been following the research by myself and others from among nearly 200 members at Principia Scientific International, I'd like to draw your attention to an Appendix now added to my current paper. Have a Happy Christmas everyone! Doug Cotton
It seems this blog does not handle HTML. The links are ... http://principia-scientific.org/PROM/COTTON%20PROM%20paper%20PSI_Planetary_Surface_Temperatures.pdf http://proceedings.aip.org/resource/2/apcpcs/643/1/225_1?isAuthorized=no http://principia-scientific.org/policies.html http://principia-scientific.org/about/why-psi-is-a-private-assoc.html Doug Cotton
Models neglect natural temperature gradient
If you spend a few minutes reading my paper and at least the abstract of the paper published by the American Institute of Physics (cited in reference (8) in my reference ) you might understand what happens in the atmospheric physics of both Earth and Venus. I'm still waiting for a satisfactory alternative explanation from anyone in the world regarding the Venus surface temperature. Pressure does not maintain high temperatures all by itself, anywhere, not even on Venus. So forget that "explanation." My paper is up for PROM (Peer Review in Open Media) for a month, so feel free to publish a rebuttal or debate it with some of these members of PSI. Such a review system far outstrips the "peer-review" system used for typical pro-AGW publications. Doug Cotton
Could you please update this page showing the September 2012 coverage
The difference between a 8 14 19 hour average and 24 hours average
The temperature data you used from De Bilt before 1951 is an average of three measuremants a day, 8-14-19 hrs. From 1951 on the average temperature is from 24 hour measurements a day. The three measurements a day give about a 1 degree higher average temperature. No hide the decline here! The raw data you can find in the KNMI yearbooks. In many books even hourly tempeatures from De Bilt! http://www.knmi.nl/cms/content/105165/centraal_nederland_temperatuurreeks Regards, Hans Verkijk
You can find the book here: http://libgen.info/view.php?id=545679
Rob Painting cannot be serious if he uses hiroshima bombs for climate explanation
and on the other hand does not use bombs for sun iradiation
It is not catastrophic either
You may want to correct your spelling. The word is catastrophic. It is one of those cases where the English language uses "ph" for an "f" sound.
Excelent remarks to Daivd Evans ...
Plase refer to: http://www.skepticalscience.com/David-Evans-All-at-Sea-about-Ocean-Warming-and-Sea-Level-Rise.html
An impressive piece of work. Are there any instances where the adjustments reduce the recent "warming" ?
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|Hi Murray!||By Frank Lansner on 23rd February, 2011 at 12:30:33|
|You write: "I was astonished by your zoom analysis of the DMI summer temperature trend."
Well, I honestly was surpriced myself, and I really did the closer look because i was scientifically interested: How can temperatures 80-90N decline while the general Arctic showed less and less ice?
For one thing, this also supports, that the melting came from below, a warmer Arctic AMO current pushing slightly warmer water under the ice? So what ever causes the AMO to warm appears responsible?
In addition, winds around year 2010-2008 did change to push more ice out of the arctic - but also had the effect of compressing ice North of GreenLand/Canada areas - which includes most of 80N-90N.
So a compressing of ice in 80N-90N might actually diminish the smaller areas occuring with open waters 80N-90N and thereby really explain why temperatures have declined 80-90N.
One of the most important results herea are of course how completely useless the GISS REEEED color 80N-90N rising temperatures in summer apperas. The DMI data (ERA40 etc) clearly show GISS projection over oceans to be crap. So why do GISS use this?? Well it makes a superbe red color in the top of their global warming illustrations....
|Arctic melt season cooling||By Unknown on 22nd February, 2011 at 22:19:22|
|I was astonished by your zoom analysis of the DMI summer temperature trend. I have scanned those annual curves n+1 times and never noticed that, because of the scale I guess. Or maybe it's that you are more observant. Anyway, the cooling starts about 1993, which is just after the peak of solar cycle 22. The first bit of cooling could be consistent with the downside of the 11 year solar cycle. But then we have a much less active cycle 23, and a quiescent cycle 24. Quite probably more cloudy days, a la Svensmark, and thus summer cooling. We see some sign of global SST cooling starting 2003, but for sure after 2005. Long delay time to see the solar effect in SST, and then longer to transport the cooler water to the Arctic, and we get the ice minimum in 2007, 14 years after the cooling start in 1993 that shows up in Arctic summer temperature. WOW! You may have found the "canary in the coal mine". Murray|
|Various||By Unknown on 22nd February, 2011 at 21:51:18|
|Frank, in the left sidebar you have links to UAH,RSS,HadCRUT3, NCDC,GISS etc. The curve the links take you to for RSS, HadCRUT3 and NCDC is the same curve.
CO2 global warming theory postulates that warming will be greatest at night, in winter and at high latitudes. Probably the postulate applies to warming regardless of the driver. For sure DMI shows far greater variation in winter. Average warming for high latitudes is the average of little or no change in summer, and substantially less cold in winter, but still much to cold to melt anything. Similarly global average comes from little or no change in the tropics, and large change, mainly less cold, at high latitudes.
I think the reason the Arctic is near the same in the 2000s as in the late 1930s is because both periods were near the peak of the 60 year climate cycle. In fact, using your analyses, the cooling ca 1944-1976 was near o.4 degrees C. I can just about justify anything from 0.35 to 0.45 degrees, depending on which of your curves to use. It is very likely that real warming, after correcting for all warming biases, from 1976 to ca 2006 was =< 0.4 degrees. Most stations north of 67, after allowance for UHI for some of them, have the highest warm years in the late 1930s, although there are a few that have the warmest cold years in the 2000s. The decade 1998-2008 may have been a bit warmer than the decade 1934-1944, but again, if corrected for all warming biases, I doubt that it would be. Biases like new instruments, new airports, and missing minus signs are very important in the region north of 67.
For more on climate cycles see my blog at http://www.agwnot.blogspot.com/ Nov 16 and Jan 23 posts.
Great source of temp series here
|Peter Sawyer, Australia send this letter||By Unknown on 13th February, 2010 at 16:20:29|
|Peter Sawyer, Australia send me the e-mail below. His attached article is published as "Skeptics" by Peter sawyer.
Congratulations on your website - most fitting name I must say.
I've only just started to work my way through, but so far it is looking
However, as a professional writer for some thirty years, can I be so
bold as to say I think you are making the same fundamental error that
all the other so-called skeptic sites are making?
Not in the "science" itself, which I am sure is spot on, but in the
actual language used.
I note you introduce yourselves as "skeptics or realists", and that is
at least a step in the right direction - further than any of the other
"skeptic" sites have gone.
But there are very good reasons why you should stick solely to being
realists, and stop using the term "skeptic" altogether.
There are other, equally important words that must be avoided at all
costs, and yet others that must be hammered home at every opportunity.
In the hope of enlightening people on the importance of the words used,
I have written an essay which is attached.
I send you a copy for you to use as you see fit - either as an article,
or just for your own edification.
Peter Sawyer - Australia