Way more MWP evidence now

Add this one http://science.sciencemag.org/content/342/6158/617

my email


Dave Garrett

It would be great if there was an update to all of these solar predictions. This is all very interesting. I am not a scientist but I do run an ag innovation fund. The future for ag is important to me. Kind regards, Dave Garrett 9/3/2014

Peter Sawyer still owes me $1000 after the gold futures investment that he encouraged his subscribers to invest in, didnt work out too well. He said that he sold out of it and that a 10% loss was incurred..however he only ever returned 30% of my money and kept the rest for himself in spite of my numerous polite requests for it. Therefore I dont think anything of his reports . He has no credibility after what he did to a loyal subscriber at the time....how many others got stung I wonder

Did you read the Paper "Strong Alpine glacier melt in the 1940s due to enhanced solar radiation"?

You didn’t read the paper, did you? In “Strong Alpine glacier melt in the 1940s due to enhanced solar radiation” is stated: “Between 1960 and 1980 high cloudiness, low global radiation and low air temperatures in the European Alps [Auer et al., 2007] are in line with strongly reduced glacier melt rates (Figure 3), resulting in a short period of balanced mass budget of mountain glaciers worldwide [Kaser et al.,2006]. The enhanced greenhouse effect of terrestrial radiation and the brightening of solar radiation since the early 1980s induced higher air temperatures [Wild et al., 2004; Philipona et al. , 2009] and increasing snow and ice melt over the last decades approaching the maximum of the 1940s (Figure 3a).” It is clearly shown in the paper, that alpine galciers are melting as fast as they were in the 1940s although the shortwave Radiation input is on an average 7% lower in the 2000s than in the 1940s. Astonishing how you state “Glaciers have a complicated life. But if glaiciers are in fact used to determine global warming, there is nothing in the retreat speeds indicating that is should be warmer today than 1940.” If you read eh paper you obviously missed the point Ohmura et al. made.


Hi There - i did not get your name, but youare very welcome to email me concerning the visit to the Australian National libray. I will giver you some advise etc. Then, the Adelaide back to 1800: I dont remember having used data that old, but my data source is GHCN V2 raw for RUTI: Australia. Actually its not that rare that official data sources of temperature data seems to stitch datasets rather "freshly"... K.R. Frank

TO Mi Cro

Thanks a lot for the kind words, i have checked out your site and it looks very cool indeed. Keep up the good work !! K.R. Frank

Ruti - Adelaide data

Very interesting work you are doing, and it has once again peaked my interest. Having looked at the various Adelaide temperature data sets, I was curious as to where you located the "Adelaide Airport" data, dating back to the late 1800's. Could be wrong, but I dont think we had need of an airport before we had aeroplanes! So what is the data you are using? I am thinking of taking up your challenge to visit our central library and check out some of the original manual records. Has some one already done this that has been in contact with you yet?

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Hi Murray! By Frank Lansner on 23rd February, 2011 at 12:30:33
You write: "I was astonished by your zoom analysis of the DMI summer temperature trend."
Well, I honestly was surpriced myself, and I really did the closer look because i was scientifically interested: How can temperatures 80-90N decline while the general Arctic showed less and less ice?

For one thing, this also supports, that the melting came from below, a warmer Arctic AMO current pushing slightly warmer water under the ice? So what ever causes the AMO to warm appears responsible?

In addition, winds around year 2010-2008 did change to push more ice out of the arctic - but also had the effect of compressing ice North of GreenLand/Canada areas - which includes most of 80N-90N.

So a compressing of ice in 80N-90N might actually diminish the smaller areas occuring with open waters 80N-90N and thereby really explain why temperatures have declined 80-90N.

One of the most important results herea are of course how completely useless the GISS REEEED color 80N-90N rising temperatures in summer apperas. The DMI data (ERA40 etc) clearly show GISS projection over oceans to be crap. So why do GISS use this?? Well it makes a superbe red color in the top of their global warming illustrations....

K.R. Frank
Arctic melt season cooling By Unknown on 22nd February, 2011 at 22:19:22
I was astonished by your zoom analysis of the DMI summer temperature trend. I have scanned those annual curves n+1 times and never noticed that, because of the scale I guess. Or maybe it's that you are more observant. Anyway, the cooling starts about 1993, which is just after the peak of solar cycle 22. The first bit of cooling could be consistent with the downside of the 11 year solar cycle. But then we have a much less active cycle 23, and a quiescent cycle 24. Quite probably more cloudy days, a la Svensmark, and thus summer cooling. We see some sign of global SST cooling starting 2003, but for sure after 2005. Long delay time to see the solar effect in SST, and then longer to transport the cooler water to the Arctic, and we get the ice minimum in 2007, 14 years after the cooling start in 1993 that shows up in Arctic summer temperature. WOW! You may have found the "canary in the coal mine". Murray
Various By Unknown on 22nd February, 2011 at 21:51:18
Frank, in the left sidebar you have links to UAH,RSS,HadCRUT3, NCDC,GISS etc. The curve the links take you to for RSS, HadCRUT3 and NCDC is the same curve.

CO2 global warming theory postulates that warming will be greatest at night, in winter and at high latitudes. Probably the postulate applies to warming regardless of the driver. For sure DMI shows far greater variation in winter. Average warming for high latitudes is the average of little or no change in summer, and substantially less cold in winter, but still much to cold to melt anything. Similarly global average comes from little or no change in the tropics, and large change, mainly less cold, at high latitudes.

I think the reason the Arctic is near the same in the 2000s as in the late 1930s is because both periods were near the peak of the 60 year climate cycle. In fact, using your analyses, the cooling ca 1944-1976 was near o.4 degrees C. I can just about justify anything from 0.35 to 0.45 degrees, depending on which of your curves to use. It is very likely that real warming, after correcting for all warming biases, from 1976 to ca 2006 was =< 0.4 degrees. Most stations north of 67, after allowance for UHI for some of them, have the highest warm years in the late 1930s, although there are a few that have the warmest cold years in the 2000s. The decade 1998-2008 may have been a bit warmer than the decade 1934-1944, but again, if corrected for all warming biases, I doubt that it would be. Biases like new instruments, new airports, and missing minus signs are very important in the region north of 67.
For more on climate cycles see my blog at http://www.agwnot.blogspot.com/ Nov 16 and Jan 23 posts.
Great source of temp series here
cheers, Murray
Peter Sawyer, Australia send this letter By Unknown on 13th February, 2010 at 16:20:29
Peter Sawyer, Australia send me the e-mail below. His attached article is published as "Skeptics" by Peter sawyer.
Nicolai Skjoldby:

Hello Nikolai,

Congratulations on your website - most fitting name I must say.
I've only just started to work my way through, but so far it is looking
quite good.

However, as a professional writer for some thirty years, can I be so
bold as to say I think you are making the same fundamental error that
all the other so-called skeptic sites are making?
Not in the "science" itself, which I am sure is spot on, but in the
actual language used.

I note you introduce yourselves as "skeptics or realists", and that is
at least a step in the right direction - further than any of the other
"skeptic" sites have gone.

But there are very good reasons why you should stick solely to being
realists, and stop using the term "skeptic" altogether.
There are other, equally important words that must be avoided at all
costs, and yet others that must be hammered home at every opportunity.

In the hope of enlightening people on the importance of the words used,
I have written an essay which is attached.
I send you a copy for you to use as you see fit - either as an article,
or just for your own edification.


Peter Sawyer - Australia

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