IPCC "Gates"

Posted by Administrator (admin) on 17th February, 2010
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by Frank Lansner

After the CRU data leak, errors in global warming science, mostly from IPCC had more attention in the medias These errors pointed out around Jan-Feb 2010 were problems with scientific documentation of claims, and problems with exaggerations. “Himalaya-gate”, “Amazon-gate” these errors where dubbed, but earlier errors could have been called “Coral gate” (se A-Z, Corals) or “Positive-feedback-gate” etc. etc.


The worst problem is not individual errors, but the fact that “random errors” has a trend that supports the IPCC claim of ongoing dangerous warming consequences. The trend in errors (that resemble trend in temperature corrections etc. etc.) is what eliminates the trust in IPCC. There has been given no explanation for the trend in errors and corrections.
Organizations with environmental political agenda like WWF and Greenpeace does not have the same demands for data quality as IPCC, but IPCC fail to meet their own demands and thus fail separate their credibility from environmental groups.

Africa, food shortage. (“Africa-gate”)
Claim: 50% shortfall in North African food production just ten years from now.
IPCC repeatedly claims that “global warming could cut rain-fed north African crop production by up to 50% by 2020”.
But Professor Chris Field, the new lead author of the IPCC’s climate impacts team, told The Sunday Times that he could find nothing in the report to support the claim.
The claim is included in AR4, quoted in speeches by Rajendra Pachauri, the IPCC chairman, and by Ban Ki-moon, the UN secretary-general. And it is also included in the IPCC 2009 Synthesis Report which aim to reflect the most important findings of the IPCC. In the synthesis report however, there was a reference to “Agoumi 2003”, which is a non peer reviewed article.

African coastal areas: (More “Africa gate”)
Impact of sea-level rise on peoples living in the Nile delta and other African coastal areas, although the main focus of the thesis, by a not published work from a student at the Al-Azhar University in Cairo. The particular work appears to have been the impact of computer software on environmental development.

Amazon / Rainforest claims:  (“Amazon gate”)
“A STARTLING report by the United Nations climate watchdog that global warming might wipe out 40% of the Amazon rainforest was based on an unsubstantiated claim by green campaigners who had little scientific expertise.”: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article7009705.ece

Australian drought: (“Australia gate”)
As described under “temperature corrections, combined records” rise of Australian temperatures as well as rise of temperatures anywhere is not fully reliable. However, unusually modest rainfall in a specific area Murray Darling Basin was linked to global warming using the Paper Karoly et al 2007. This “Australia gate” is perhaps to some degree more a severe critic of the Karoly paper used by IPCC, than a critic of IPCC itself.
Later critic of Karoly 2007 in Geophysical research letters:” This study demonstrates that significant misunderstanding of known processes of land surface – atmosphere interactions has led to the incorrect attribution of the causes of the anomalous temperatures, as well as significant misunderstanding of their impact on evaporation within the Murray-Darling Basin…” etc:
For the Murray-Darling Basin in SE Australia, you do find less rainfall in the most recent years, but not over a longer period of “global warming”. And a look at Australia as a whole reveals only increased rainfall in the last century.


Disasters due to global warming:
IPCC claims: “Once the data were normalized, a small statistically significant trend was found for an increase in annual catastrophe loss since 1970 of 2% a year." It added: "Once losses are normalized for exposure, there still remains an underlying rising trend.”
This is based on a non peer reviewed Muir-Wood 2007 paper. The writer himself states: "The idea that catastrophes are rising in cost partly because of climate change is completely misleading.”
Muir-wood has found a rise in disaster damage, but not more than what would be expected given difference in population in critical areas, social matters etc. An important reason for any trend in damage relates to the Katrina hurricane 2005.
“UN wrongly linked global warming to natural disasters”

Insufficient data sources:
This kind of “errors” hardly can be accidental errors. Here is a list of approx 50 IPCC references to WWF, Greenpeace, unpublished work by students etc:

An Example, A bootwear company´s opnion is used as reference:

And the magazine “Climbing” is used to determine icemelt:

Water Power:
- The potential of wave power to produce electricity around the world, which was attributed to the website of a commercial wave-energy company.
Worse: IPCC falsely claimed that their information came from a paper on wave energy produced by the Institute of Mechanical Engineering in 1991 along with data from the European Directory of Renewable Energy.

55% of holland is today below sea level. Nope, its not. The IPCC is also facing criticism over its reports on how sea level rise might affect Holland. Dutch ministers have demanded that it correct a claim that more than half of the Netherlands lies below sea level when, in reality, it is about a quarter.


Himalaya glaciers to disappear in 2035. (“Himalaya-gate”)

One of the many claims based on writings from WWF, but this time WWF was even misquoted and the writers behind the claim was actually aware of the missing robustness in their claim:

”Dr Lal said: ‘We knew the WWF report with the 2035 date was “grey literature” [material not published in a peer-reviewed journal]. But it was never picked up by any of the authors in our working group, nor by any of the more than 500 external reviewers, by the governments to which it was sent, or by the final IPCC review editors.’”

It appears that IPCC may have changed year “2350” to year “2035” without anyone in their organisation noticed:

The embarresment increases as UN spokesman Pachauri calls other points of views for “arrogant” and “woodoo science”: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/environment/global-warming/Glaciologist-demands-apology-from-Pachauri-for-voodoo-remark/articleshow/5477796.cms
"It only shows that IPCC has based its arguments on speculations and did not verify it before making it public," the former deputy director general of the Geological Survey of India said.

Raina, in his report, had maintained that glaciers have "not shown any remarkable retreat in the last 50 years and the reports of the glaciers demise are a bit premature."

Stern report changed silently. (“Hurricane – gate”):
Costs estimation of US hurricanes in the Sterns report was 10 times bigger when politicians used it for referendum than it is today. In silence, the 1,3% GDP was changed to 0,13%:




SEE ALSO CLIMATE GATE and Scandinavia gate

Last changed: 18th February, 2010 at 13:56:35



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