Latest News (hidethedecline)
Original Temperatures: Denmark and South Sweden
|Posted by Frank Lansner (frank) on 24th December, 2013|
|Latest News (hidethedecline) >>|
First of April 1872, most meteorological tasks in Denmark were collected in the new organization “Meteorologisk Institut” – later “DMI”. The purpose of this new organization was put into these 3 statements:
1) Collect observations
2) Spread these to the public
3) Develop scientific methods for meteorology
Thus, statement 1 and 2 tells that Meteorologisk Institut/DMI should collect climate data and then spread it to the public.
Is DMI today actually doing their very best to spread out temperature observations from their stations to the public as they are paid to?
Data Sources for temperature data:
1) Meteorological yearbooks Denmark 1872-1983
2) Annual Journals from “Statens Planteavl” 1983-1997
3) Observers original handwritten Climatic sheets / National Archives 1872-1980
4) Data 1961-97 online 2012 by DMI + parts of data for some stations 1999-2006 + another set of stations 2007-2011
5) 5 long temperature series made online by DMI
6) Tutiempo and ECA web sites
7) GHCN raw v2
8) BEST raw temperature data (before they adjust it)
9) NORDKLIM database
Denmark and southern Sweden. Oceanic air temperature trends are likely to affect land temperature trends mostly in locations like coasts and hill sides facing winds from the oceans. Above is a sketch of areas likely to be most directly affected by oceanic air (red areas) and then the areas least likely to be affected directly by oceanic air (blue). The zone without colour has a more moderate and mixed exposure to ocean air. Winds are mostly from western directions, and this is why the red areas are mostly on western coasts.
Normally the ocean air affected areas show much more heat trend from 1930 to 2012 than the areas in shelter of ocean air. XXXXX LINK XXXX There is no reason to assume that this should not be the case for Denmark and Southern Sweden as well.
On this map I have now shown temperature stations used in this writing. Notice the red arrows. Red arrows points to the stations with long data series that DMI make public and use for international climate statistics. The dotted red arrows have slightly shorter data series so that we cannot directly compare the 1930-50 warm period with the recent 1990-2010 warm period. (In ECA recently also the coastal stations of Thyboroen and Sandvig are have been made public available).
The most used Danish temperature series in international climate statistics is the Copenhagen temperature station “Landbohøjskole”. The station was located near the limit of Copenhagen in year 1900, but due to city growth, the station today is located in the very heart of Copenhagen.
This Copenhagen station appear to have artificial urban heat and thus a too warm temperature trend (see fig XXXXX), but none the less it seems that DMI considers this station to be the qualified for climate science. HadCRU use only this station only for Denmark (and also parts of Southern Sweden). BEST and NASA´s GISS use the station too as one of few. The other long temperature series used by DMI are the coastal warm trended series shown in fig XXXX.
Due to these circumstances of Danish temperature data I am working together with a well-known Danish Newspaper. They help me ask DMI (and other institutions around the world) questions, require data etc. We asked DMI to deliver ALL raw temperature data possible for the last 100 years, and of course we stressed that non-coastal data was what we needed the most.
DMI replied to us that sadly they could not meet our request for reasons they would like to explain if we wanted them to. But they did send links to data from the around 40 temperature series 1961-97 DMI had online. These data are used in this writing. DMI also send links to online temperature data for the years 1999-2012 but this material is so fragmented that it is hardly of any use.
In a later mail DMI then writes that there are no other long datasets available than the 4 coastal ones + Copenhagen, but then they also wrote:
“From 1874 and forward there are temperature data from really many stations, also inland stations.
Until 1960 these are on paper in the National Archives…and in meteorological year books..”
So.. If I get it right, DMI thus claims not to be in possession of pre 1960 inland meteorological Danish data in digital format.
- Did DMI actually never key in all the temperature data before 1960 from the hundreds of stations and many hundred observers has worked hard daily for a century to create?
Fig 4 The Danish National Archive in Copenhagen.
I accepted DMI´s advice of using data from The Danish National archives (with original observation sheets) and then the meteorological yearbooks. These 2 different sources of older Danish temperature data combined give a large pile of consistent useful data from all parts of Denmark and these data will be shown in the following.
A Danish agricultural institution “Statens Planteavl” owned a number of the meteorological stations in Denmark and fortunately they published data from these stations in these annual writings for agricultural use:
However, sadly in 1997 also this source of original temperature data ends. The staff of Statens Planteavl tell me that the stations after 1997 where owned by DMI, and sadly DMI did not continue publishing these data (even though DMI is paid to “spread out climate data” – and obviously the need for these data to be published for agricultural use did not end in 1997).
Data from Statens Planteavl 1983-1997 will be included in the “MET Å” series when possible.
By stitching data from Danish National archives (“8,14,21”) and data from DK meteorological yearbooks (“MET Å”) including data from Statens Planteavl and more data sources, finally a temperature graph for a long row of stations can be created, Here an example: Tylstrup.
The online temperature data 1961-2012 from DMI.
Below I have listed the DMI temperature data found when going through DMI´s site last year using links send to us by DMI. (Most if not all links do not work this year ..!?! so I cannot even guarantee that all these data are still available from DMI today).
DMI 1999-2006 (as online 2012)
Notice the data point 2006 (from the 2006-7 warm peak) on the Tylstrup graph fig XXX.
Using links in mail from DMI last year I found monthly reports on the last year for a row of Danish stations 1999-2006. Sadly DMI kept changing what stations where included the monthly reports to such a degree, that only 10 of the 43 temperature series presented by DMI show a complete dataset just for the short period 1999-2006:
These results are not official DMI numbers, but my results from calculating yearly averages of DMI official monthly numbers.
DMI 2007-2011 (as online 2012)
2007-2012 same as above, but DMI now have changed the station names or even the stations used:
Now suddenly after changing names/stations, DMI seems to have no problems delivering complete datasets without gabs for almost all stations. I guess DMI had severe technical problems in the period 1999-2006 that was fixed 1 jan 2007?
But where is Tylstrup in the 2007-11 data? Where is Abed? Billund? Ødum? Brakker? Årslev? Etcetc.
My experience with getting 1999-2012 data from DMI online is at best a considerable use of time, and a pile of muddy fragmented data rather risky to use.
DMI send us a collection of climate data links, including a link to DMI 1960-1997 climate data:
(From http://beta.dmi.dk/fileadmin/Rapporter/TR/tr06-12.pdf page 15)
I may not have looked in the right places on the net, but I can’t see the tr99-5 files (and many other files) on the net from DMI anymore. It is of no consequence because I downloaded all last year both PDF and the ZIP files..
There are 47 datasets of which 31 are cut off in 1990. (How come? Technical issues on 31 sites at the same time in 1991 explains the cut of these datasets? Or do DMI have some special purpose of not showing data after 1990 for so many stations?). Several of the datasets are available long before 1961 from both Meteorological year books and the National Archives, and so these files that was online last year extends many long datasets nicely until 1990. In other words: We have many long datasets, and even if DMI do not show the public data fully for recent years, they do show that many temperature series are still active. So fortunately DMI maybe have not ruined Danish climate science for good.
Data 1961-97 send us link to are very useful and are included in the results later in this writing. When used they are labelled “DMI”.
Overall impression of DMI online 2012 temperature data:
Before 1961: Only 4 coastal datasets + Copenhagen = useless, only warm trended stations available.
1961-1990: Ok data availability (not impressive).
1990-97: Mostly shorter fractions available, not that much can be used.
1998: Nothing available.
1999-2006: Mostly shorter fractions available, not much can be used.
2007-2011: Mostly other shorter fractions available, not much can be used.
DMI, could you please just put a little excel file online with all actual raw temperature datasets in their full lengths?
ECA data: How to “disappear” data…
To get temperature data for the very latest years, one will often have to rely on possibly adjusted data on sites like ECA.
Large parts of this writing was made in 2012 and thus temperature data from internet site ECA was downloaded in 2012 around May-July. However, in November 2012 I noticed some changes of ECA data:
Until summer 2012 temperature series for Karup, Skrydstrup, Bornholm Airport and Tirstrup was updated fully to 2011. But today on ECA these temperature series has been cut in 1999. Thus, DMI or ECA has actively decided to remove these data from the public. So it’s sheer luck I happened to download these data when it was possible in 2012.
Stations used in this writing. Squares indicate that I have used at least parts of data from online sources.
Summary South Sweden
Long Swedish temperature data from inland stations are easier available than the Danish, so let’s first take a look at the South Swedish data:
The Non-coastal (blue) area of South Sweden shows no temperature rise after the1930-50 warm period. (When possible, NORDKLIM data is used to ensure that data are original).
In contrast, the Coastal datasets of Southern Sweden do show warming after the 1930-50 warm period.
Base period 1931-60. Coastal temperature trend show around 0.8 K more temperature increase after the warm period 1930-1950 than the Non-coastal do.
Not surprisingly the area en between the areas I defined as Coastal and Non-coastal (“Y1”) show a trend in between the coastal and non-coastal trends.
Base period 1931-60. For Denmark we see the same patterns we saw for South Sweden. Around 0.7 K more heat trend in stations located near coasts than we see for non-coastal areas. Again the “in-between” areas Y1-Y7 show trends nicely in between coastal and non-coastal trends.
PS: Especially the most recent Non-coastal Danish temperature data is scarce and therefore the DK non-coastal graph after 1997 is not as accurate as I would like.
Both Coastal and Non-Coastal datasets from Sweden seems to have less heat trend than the Danish corresponding datasets. This might be due to the fact that Denmark is nearer the Atlantic ocean – Denmark is more in “the front line” of oceanic air than Sweden.
Base Period 1931-60. The 5 long datasets DMI have available for the public and climate science in comparison with general Danish Coastal and Non-Coastal trends.
Issue with DMI national temperature data after 1990?
In international climate statistics typically the station data are used, not national numbers. Therefore the National numbers for temperature trend published by DMI has not much consequence. However the DMI national numbers are used in the Danish medias when presenting the climate situation for the Danes. Actually, the year 2007 is supposed to have been the warmest year “ever” In Denmark.
To claim this, the DMI national numbers for 2007 must be warmer than all other years on record. Lets take a look:
I have highlighted the history since 1990 by aligning the datasets in 1990.
Now the graph for the area in between coastal and Non-coastal areas is green and it is called “DK Y1-Y7”. Notice that the DMI National temperature trend graph all years until 1997 is nicely located in between the Coastal and Non-Coastal datasets as it should. In fact the DMi national numbers are rather closely following the green graph for the area in between Coastal and Non-coastal data. This is perfect.
But then in the period 1998-2001 the national numbers starts to follow the more warm trended coastal data? And even more dramatic, the national numbers begins to show even more heat trend than the coastal data!
Judge for yourself if this an issue in data, but I find it odd.
If the DMI national number had continued to follow the green “medium” graph, these are the warmest heat peaks of Denmark:
1) The 1989-1990 peak
2) The 1934 peak
3) The 1949 peak
That is, we have to go 23 years back to find what seems to be the real Danish temperature record.
TOBS issues combining raw data from the Danish national archives with TOBS corrected data.
The notification “Randers 8,14,21” means that these data are a raw average of 3 daily measurements (and it also indicates that this series is from the National Archives).
However, the TOBS corrected “Randers BEST” (taken from the BEST catalogue) obviously shows another daily average.
There are more ways to estimate TOBS corrections using calculations, but I prefer to safely stitch datasets as if they were 2 independent data series.
RESULTS FOR DANISH AREAS
Results are shown for each of the above areas. Red areas are called “R1” – “R6” , Blue areas “B1” – “B7” and black areas “Y1” – “Y7”.
The BEST Corner
BEST temperature data from Denmark resembles Coastal and Ocean Air Affected area temperatures. Ocean Air Shelter stations (B1-B7 average) appears ignored by the BEST project.
Last changed: 24th December, 2013 at 16:19:06Back
|Thank you Carl Friis-Hansen||By Unknown on 2nd January, 2016 at 22:31:22|
|I have had that same thought too: All those people working so hard to garther data.. The whole point with DMI is to collect and spread out climate data. But the more "climate" appears to be a sensitive issue, the more DMI close down for public access to the actual data measurements.
All the best :-)
K.R. Frank Lansner
|Great work and something about Hesseloe, DMI and the People||By Unknown on 10th October, 2015 at 13:16:29|
|What a great work, and as everybody else, you stumble over the "the dog has eaten the data sheets".
I participated occasionally in collecting temperature, barometer, sunshine hours on Hesseloe, small island the middle of Kettegat in Denmark, in the 1960's. We were very serious about the data we collected for the monthly report to DMI.
We, the people, put proud and honor into this voluntary work, in the expectation that the statistics were useful, valued and cared for by DMI.
The were handwritten data, but OCR (Optical Character Recognition) has been known for very many decades by now, so why in the h... did DMI not take all these great data and OCR'ed them, and made them freely available to the public, who actually gathered the data in the first place?
|It is difficult to understand what the result af all this work is..||By Unknown on 13th January, 2014 at 14:53:12|
|No matter how much work Frank Lanser has done, something is missing.
No links to data are shown. Therefore data can’t be read in order to control the graphs and the related conclusions.
It is virtually certain that misunderstanding and misinterpretation is always present in an analysis. When a link data is missing there will be a lack of credibility.
Climate skeptics have repeatedly accused climate scientists not make data available to the public. When they publish something themselves, there is no link to the data they have used. That's what you call hypocrisy!
What is the conclusion this analysis?