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Original Temperatures: Sweden and Norway

Posted by Frank Lansner (frank) on 24th February, 2014
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This writing builds on the methods and conclusions from the summary article:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/01/06/the-original-temperatures-project/

 
Fig 1

In the Original Temperatures Project it was shown that areas in best possible Ocean Air Shelter (“OAS”) show little or no temperature increase after the 1930-40´ies. In fact a large OAS area like the US Midwest even show overall temperature decline from the 1930´ies until today.

How come there is no warming of the over the Earth land surface where ocean air temperature trends are avoided best possible due to the geography? Should not the greenhouse gas warming be effective on land without being affected by temperature trends from ocean air?
If greenhouse gasses had resulted in dramatic warming of the Earth after the 1930-50 warm period, this warming should be most visible over land especially where temperatures are less delayed/disturbed by temperature trends from the oceans.
So it looks as if Original temperature data – when possible to access – do not support a warming of the Earth today much stronger than in the warming 1930-50.

Recently I then started collecting data from Sweden and Norway due to the large and important OAS area in Sweden.

Fig 2

I have collected data from meteorological year books at the beautiful Library at Lund University, Sweden. Let me show you how come it makes perfect sense to collect meteorological data from Sweden:

 
Fig 3

In Scandinavia, winds are often from Western directions. Therefore areas east of the Scandinavian mountains are rather good Ocean Air Shelter areas (OAS). The most obvious OAS areas of Norway and Sweden are shown in blue. The Southern Swedish area can be expected to be a weaker OAS area due to the mixed landscape of hills and valleys.

Why not start out with the conclusion?


 
Fig 4

The average temperatures of the 1930´ies in these large OAS areas (blue) resemble today’s temperatures. The thin black line is 10 years averages; the thick black line is the 30 years average.
This large Scandinavian OAS area is not “perfect” because Eastern will give some Oceanic temperature trend from the Baltic Sea.

So yet again original temperature data confirms that greenhouse gasses doesn’t seem to work as supposed after 1930 unless the temperature trends from oceans and ocean air are present to yield a temperature increase.

 
Fig 5
Some European Ocean Air Shelter areas. From this writing the purple “Scandinavia” graph is added.
These mostly Arctic Scandinavian data show the mid 20´th century warm peak to occur a little earlier than in the other parts of Europe analysed.
 
Regional results

 
Fig 6: Click to enlarge. Blue: OAS areas   Black: OAA areas    Red: Coastal areas
Areas/stations used for this writing.

In order to evaluate also coastal temperature trends of the region, temperature data from Norwegian meteorological year books was collected too for this analysis. Finally some temperature stations from Northern Finland were used from the ECA&D database.

SMHI
The online availability of temperature data to the Swedish public from the large number of Swedish temperature stations is limited.

 
Fig 7: From URL http://www.smhi.se/klimatdata/meteorologi/dataserier-2.1102
The Swedish Meteorological Institute denies the public online access to temperature data before 1961. So just like for many other countries, data from the warm period 1930-50 is not for the public to easily see.

And perhaps worse: The text in the box says – translated to English:
“This service will end on 25 feb 2014. “
And then they give an alternative link that at least for now do not lead to another site with possibility to download temperature data from these 150 stations.


ECA&D Sweden
The Swedish temperature data sets are also available from the KNMI site ECA&D. But also here data appear to be limited to the years after 1961 in most cases.
In the following the blue graphs are data from meteorological yearbooks. The red graphs show temperature data that the public can access from ECA.


OAS stations from the bulk of Sweden:      
 
Fig8a
 
Fig 8b


OAA stations (Hill/Mountain stations Western Sweden)
 
Fig9

Coastal stations:
 
Fig 10

Datasets used for this writing are from meteorological year books until normally 1970-80 and when possible these has been stitched with ECA datasets that holds more recent data.


SMHI do however show 2 temperature series with data before 1961 to the public:
 

 
Fig 11
Stockholm and Uppsala are the largest and 4´th largest urban areas of Sweden respectively, and SMHI writes that these stations have urban heat issues and claim that they have corrected for this.
The thin black lines are 10 year averages; the thick black lines are 30 years averages.
30 year averages are shown around 1 K warmer today than the last warm peak 1930-50.

  
Fig 12

The large Ocean Air Shelter area “B1-B10” covers most of Central and North Sweden and also a bit of Norway and Finland. Station data was collected in 10 subareas B1 to B10 and the above graph show the average temperature trend hereof. Again the thin black line is the 10 year average temperature and the thick black line reflects the 30 year average.
While the datasets from Uppsala and Stockholm as presented by SMHI show strong warming after the 1930´ies, the entire large B1-B10 area does not.

 
Fig 13

The C + N Sweden OAS area is one of the largest OAS areas in Europe and the 10 different areas B1-B10 show rather similar “homogenous” temperature trends. All 10 areas have 1934 and 1938 as the warmest years.

 
Fig 14

As could be expected, the Norwegian OAS area B15 has similar temperature trends as the nearby Swedish OAS areas B5-B10.

 
Fig 15

As normally seen, the coastal temperature datasets has less amplitude than the OAS stations but more warm-trend from the 1930´ies and forward.

 
Fig 16

Arctic Scandinavia deserves some attention because this area is likely to be the part of the Arctic with the largest concentration of longer useful temperature series worldwide this far North.
 
Fig 17
Arctic areas. Notice the fine agreement between the Arctic areas B1 to B4.

The Arctic coastal data (R8) show less variance than the Ocean Air Shelter areas nearby (B1 – B4). In addition the coastal data has more heat trend from the 1930´ies and forward than the OAS areas. For the OAS areas we see that recent temperatures resemble the previous heat peak 1930-50.
These are the typical differences between coastal and OAS areas but now we know that these results apply also to Arctic regions.

 
Fig 18
An example: The B1 area with data from Norway and Finland. Above is shown data “as is”.

 
Fig 19
Here we see the same data when making best fit to the Norwegian Karasjok station data.

Fig 20

In Southern Sweden some station are placed in slightly higher elevations affected by ocean air while other stations are located in valleys – in shelter of Ocean air. Overall, coastal stations R1-R3 show just around 0,3 K more heat trend 1930-2011 than the non-coastal areas B11-B14.

Fig 21 Upper graph: An estimate of Swedish national temperature trends using original temperature data. Temperature trends was calculated for 18 areas and weighted with respect to the approximate size of the areas.
Thin black line is 10 years averages, thick black line is 30 year average.
Fig 21 Lower graph: The SMHI estimate of Swedish national temperature trends. Black line is 10 year averages.

1) The SMHI version of Swedish national temperature trend has smaller difference between warm and cold years (around 15%) than the original data graph.
2) In addition, the SMHI version has more heat trend than the original temperature version.
Both these differences suggest that SMHI has weighted ocean data more than I did. SMHI writes that they have used 35 stations. I get the impression that SMHI has perhaps simply taken the average of these 35 stations which obviously easily can give a wrong result:

 
Fig 22

WRONG: Left, An OAS station (blue) and a coastal station has been given the same weight.
CORRECT: Right, The Coastal station should only represent an area of a coast line.

   
Fig 23

Norway: Coastal data R4 to R7 show warmest temperature trend and the area best sheltered agains ocean air – B15 show no warm trend after the 1930´ies. Areas B16 to B18 have weaker shelter against ocean air and thus more warm trend than the B15 area. I 
Fig 24
Coastal data versus OAA data: Hills and Mountain areas facing ocean winds have longterm temperature trends rather similar to the coastal areas, but the differences in temperatures from year to year are smaller in the coastal areas.

 
Fig 25

Finally an overview of the full area analysed (Norway + Sweden + North Finland) – temperature trends from the 32 areas has been weighted with respect to the size of the area (see fig 25 right). Since the Ocean Air Shelter areas dominate the land area then the overall average show just a moderate warming after the warm 1930´ies. 1934 and 1938 are the warmest years. The thin black line is the 10 year average; the thick black line is 30 years average.

Within a month all area-graphs will be available at hidethedecline.eu


 

Last changed: 24th February, 2014 at 01:17:30

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