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RUTI - an introduction

Posted by Frank Lansner (frank) on 7th July, 2011
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After 10 weeks of silence on Hidethedecline, I think its time to make online my ongoing project, "RUTI": Rural Unadjusted Temperature Index .

RUTI is ongoing, some articles already available and some new articles will appear in the hidethedecline news section. Normally single articles focus on a smaller area of one or more countries. When data covers most of the land on Earth, then global and zonal temperature trends will be estimated.

RUTI is not all rural nor all unadjusted. However, RUTI is a temperature index aiming to use still more rural data (less use of city and airport data), still more unadjusted data when reasonable.

The general highest priority of RUTI is to
1) compare temperatures for the recent warmer years 1995-2010 with the previous warm peak around 1925-45 and
2) evaluate to what degree rural data is actually used by GHCN, Hadcrut and others and

3) evaluate the corrections done by GHCN, Hadrut or other data sources

 

Some of the highlights in the RUTI project so far are described HERE, and here some examples:

 

RUTI Highlights

The first obstacle you meet when collecting GHCN temperature data is the general data limitation. One example is Zaire, where the whole large country has all temperature series limited to just 1950-1976. – Even for their capital Kinshasa. Perhaps no one in Kinshasa has any idea what the temperature is today.
So I collected data from all areas in a circle around Zaire to get an idea of what we might have found if Zaire temperature data where public available:

In addition I was a little surprised to see how Hadcrut ignores early warm years for their 5x5 grid of for example Zambia:

Investigating South Africa was stunning for me because of the systematic cuts of rural temperature data. Unlike for the largest cities in South Africa, the rural data had this bizarre availability:

And later for Turkey, absolutely each and every 82 rural temperature stations cut down so much that it cannot be used for anything. This leaves only urban data to account for the longer timeseries. Later I found that this cutting down rural data is rather normal for the GHCN temperature data and other sources of temperature data.


I then made a check to simply find out: How many Long rural temperature series are there in continental western Europe?
I have found.. 5 so far:

(Italian Catania temperature trend strongly resembles other similar Italian temperature trends )

In the Article “NW Europe and De Bilt”  I had to search for any temperature data near the De Bilt station in NW continental Europe, since many series even for large cities have been hidden:


The missing temperature data appears not to be a problem with missing functional meteorological stations, here the stations from where you can get 100-year long uninterrupted GHCN precipitation data:

Its probably much easier to store precipitation data than temperature data?

Another challenge is when “unadjusted” GHCN is not that unadjusted afterall, here is how 2 Berlin stations 30 km apart differs in “unadjusted GHCN data:

 But despite challenges like the above, I think the resulting average (partly urban!) temperature graph for this NW area is rather solid and generally suggests that temperatures today resembles temperatures of previous warm peak:


Some of the strongest indicators of systematic wrong adjustments of temperature data points to the adjustments done to warm peaks in Hatcrut data.

The Mozambique “M” as seen in GHCN unadjusted…

Is completely erased in Hadcrut data for ALL stations in Mozambique, and even some stations outside Mozambique:

However, on the south Africa side of the Mozambique boarder, the adjusters has left the “M” intact:

 

 


And exactly the same scenario for France: ALL French data stations show a significant peak 1989-1991 that resembles what we see in a belt from Spain to Murmansk. But the peak has been erased for ALL French stations in Hadcrut data, in fact a little dive has been inserted.

So ALL French stations by freak accident made a mistake, the same mistake, and this freak similar error in French stations just happened to match the shape of the temperature in so many other countries?
In Spain those particular years has been removed totally from data. They did not know the temperature in Spanish cities in 1990-1991?

Exactly same thing with a temperature peak around 1994 “The Austrian Peak” visible in a large part of Europe, but eliminated in many (but not all) datasets in Hadcrut data.

And here a little impressing 5x5 grid from Hadcrut, Zimbabwe. We have three long temperature series from unadjusted GHCN located in the black triangle:

And here their quite similar temperature trends for the 3 stations:

And by true Hadcrut magic abra-cadabra-alla-gazim: The historic heat is gone…. ?!


Another interesting point I find fair to mention is the general overall temperature of this planet 60N – 90 N.
Here are Russian trends. (50-60N especially in the European Russia appears adjusted strongly it seems, will be updated).
Notice Russia 60N-90N:

For almost the entire period of “global warming”, The Russia (incl Siberia) 60-90N has not been warmer than in previous long warm peak. Just few recent years is slightly warmer.
And then Greenland, also located 60-90N:

Same picture.
Iceland:

Same picture
Central and northern Sweden:

Northern Finland:

The point? All land area on this Earth 60N-90N Except for Canada (have not analysed Canada temperatures yet) hardly shows any warming in recent years compared to previous long warm peak.

For Greenland I showed, that a longer period of compare (20 year average) still has Greenland warmer in 1930-45 than today:

 

Atlantic (Oceanic) influence on temperature trends:

For Especially Denmark, Netherlands, South Africa and the North African Atlantic coast I have focussed on the difference on temperature trends directly on the coasts and the non-coastal series, Morocco:

Periods of warming are simply not reflected well using North Atlantic coastal stations. Europe is generally warmer during periods of western winds, but in these periods, the Atliantic coastal stations are affected more by Atlantic water temperatures. 

An explanation of the above from RUTI scandinavia:

 

Just as Ocean-coastal temperature stations, then temperature stations on icy mountain peaks appears to show different temperature trends than the surroundings, at least for the Alps:

Non the less, from hadcrut and CHGN we have higher concentration of long rural data series available for the European Alps than any other area of Europe...

 
 

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Last changed: 7th July, 2011 at 22:12:45

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