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Kevin Trenberth to Michael Mann, Oct 12, 2009:
The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t. The CERES data published in the August BAMS 09 supplement on 2008 shows there should be even more warming: but the data are surely wrong. Our observing system is inadequate.
Kevin Trenberth to Tom Wigley, Oct 14, 2009
Hi Tom
How come you do not agree with a statement that says we are no where close to knowing where
energy is going or whether clouds are changing to make the planet brighter. We are not
close to balancing the energy budget. The fact that we can not account for what is
happening in the climate system makes any consideration of geoengineering quite hopeless as
we will never be able to tell if it is successful or not! It is a travesty!
Kevin
Leo Tolstoy
“I know that most men, including those at ease with problems of the greatest complexity, can seldom accept even the simplest and most obvious truth if it be such as would oblige them to admit the falsity of conclusions which they have delighted in explaining to colleagues, which they have proudly taught to others, and which they have woven, thread by thread, into the fabric of their lives.”
Phil Jones
“We have 25 or so years invested in the work. Why should I make the data available to you, when your aim is to try and find something wrong with it.” -
Phil Jones to Michael Mann Feb 21, 2005:
The IPCC comes in for a lot of stick.
Leave it to you to delete as appropriate !
Cheers
Phil
PS I'm getting hassled by a couple of people to release the CRU station temperature data.
Don't any of you three tell anybody that the UK has a Freedom of Information Act !
Tom Wigley to Phil Jones Sep 27, 2009:
If you look at the attached plot you will see that the
land also shows the 1940s blip (as I'm sure you know).
So, if we could reduce the ocean blip by, say, 0.15 degC,
then this would be significant for the global mean — but
we'd still have to explain the land blip.
I've chosen 0.15 here deliberately. This still leaves an
ocean blip, and i think one needs to have some form of
ocean blip to explain the land blip (via either some common
forcing, or ocean forcing land, or vice versa, or all of
these). When you look at other blips, the land blips are
1.5 to 2 times (roughly) the ocean blips — higher sensitivity
plus thermal inertia effects. My 0.15 adjustment leaves things
consistent with this, so you can see where I am coming from.
Removing ENSO does not affect this.
It would be good to remove at least part of the 1940s blip,
but we are still left with "why the blip".
Let me go further. If you look at NH vs SH and the aerosol
effect (qualitatively or with MAGICC) then with a reduced
ocean blip we get continuous warming in the SH, and a cooling
in the NH — just as one would expect with mainly NH aerosols.
The other interesting thing is (as Foukal et al. note — from
MAGICC) that the 1910-40 warming cannot be solar. The Sun can
get at most 10% of this with Wang et al solar, less with Foukal
solar. So this may well be NADW, as Sarah and I noted in 1987
(and also Schlesinger later). A reduced SST blip in the 1940s
makes the 1910-40 warming larger than the SH (which it
currently is not) — but not really enough.
So ... why was the SH so cold around 1910? Another SST problem?
(SH/NH data also attached.)
This stuff is in a report I am writing for EPRI, so I'd
appreciate any comments you (and Ben) might have.
Tom.
Tim Osborn to Michael Mann and Ian Macadam , Oct 5, 1999:
Dear Mike and Ian
Keith has asked me to send you a timeseries for the IPCC multi-proxy
reconstruction figure, to replace the one you currently have. The data are
attached to this e-mail. They go from 1402 to 1995, although we usually
stop the series in 1960 because of the recent non-temperature signal that
is superimposed on the tree-ring data that we use. I haven't put a 40-yr
smoothing through them - I thought it best if you were to do this to ensure
the same filter was used for all curves.
Keith Briffa:
Briffa:
For the record, I do believe that the proxy data do show unusually
>warm conditions in recent decades. I am not sure that this unusual warming
>is so clear in the summer responsive data. I believe that the recent warmth
>was probably matched about 1000 years ago. I do not believe that global
>mean annual temperatures have simply cooled progressively over thousands of
>years as Mike appears to and I contend that that there is strong evidence
>for major changes in climate over the Holocene (not Milankovich) that
>require explanation and that could represent part of the current or future
>background variability of our climate. I think the Venice meeting will be
>a good place to air these isssues.
Latest News (hidethedecline)
After 10 weeks of silence on Hidethedecline, I think its time to make online my ongoing project, "RUTI": Rural Unadjusted Temperature Index .
RUTI is ongoing, some articles already available and some new articles will appear in the hidethedecline news section. Normally single articles focus on a smaller area of one or more countries. When data covers most of the land on Earth, then global and zonal temperature trends will be estimated.
RUTI is not all rural nor all unadjusted. However, RUTI is a temperature index aiming to use still more rural data (less use of city and airport data), still more unadjusted data when reasonable.
The general highest priority of RUTI is to
1) compare temperatures for the recent warmer years 1995-2010 with the previous warm peak around 1925-45 and
2) evaluate to what degree rural data is actually used by GHCN, Hadcrut and others and
3) evaluate the corrections done by GHCN, Hadrut or other data sources
Some of the highlights in the RUTI project so far are described HERE, and here some examples:
RUTI Highlights
The first obstacle you meet when collecting GHCN temperature data is the general data limitation. One example is Zaire, where the whole large country has all temperature series limited to just 1950-1976. – Even for their capital Kinshasa. Perhaps no one in Kinshasa has any idea what the temperature is today.
So I collected data from all areas in a circle around Zaire to get an idea of what we might have found if Zaire temperature data where public available:

In addition I was a little surprised to see how Hadcrut ignores early warm years for their 5x5 grid of for example Zambia:

Investigating South Africa was stunning for me because of the systematic cuts of rural temperature data. Unlike for the largest cities in South Africa, the rural data had this bizarre availability:

And later for Turkey, absolutely each and every 82 rural temperature stations cut down so much that it cannot be used for anything. This leaves only urban data to account for the longer timeseries. Later I found that this cutting down rural data is rather normal for the GHCN temperature data and other sources of temperature data.
I then made a check to simply find out: How many Long rural temperature series are there in continental western Europe?
I have found.. 5 so far:

(Italian Catania temperature trend strongly resembles other similar Italian temperature trends )
In the Article “NW Europe and De Bilt” I had to search for any temperature data near the De Bilt station in NW continental Europe, since many series even for large cities have been hidden:

The missing temperature data appears not to be a problem with missing functional meteorological stations, here the stations from where you can get 100-year long uninterrupted GHCN precipitation data:

Its probably much easier to store precipitation data than temperature data?
Another challenge is when “unadjusted” GHCN is not that unadjusted afterall, here is how 2 Berlin stations 30 km apart differs in “unadjusted GHCN data:

But despite challenges like the above, I think the resulting average (partly urban!) temperature graph for this NW area is rather solid and generally suggests that temperatures today resembles temperatures of previous warm peak:

Some of the strongest indicators of systematic wrong adjustments of temperature data points to the adjustments done to warm peaks in Hatcrut data.
The Mozambique “M” as seen in GHCN unadjusted…

Is completely erased in Hadcrut data for ALL stations in Mozambique, and even some stations outside Mozambique:

However, on the south Africa side of the Mozambique boarder, the adjusters has left the “M” intact:


And exactly the same scenario for France: ALL French data stations show a significant peak 1989-1991 that resembles what we see in a belt from Spain to Murmansk. But the peak has been erased for ALL French stations in Hadcrut data, in fact a little dive has been inserted.

So ALL French stations by freak accident made a mistake, the same mistake, and this freak similar error in French stations just happened to match the shape of the temperature in so many other countries?
In Spain those particular years has been removed totally from data. They did not know the temperature in Spanish cities in 1990-1991?

Exactly same thing with a temperature peak around 1994 “The Austrian Peak” visible in a large part of Europe, but eliminated in many (but not all) datasets in Hadcrut data.
And here a little impressing 5x5 grid from Hadcrut, Zimbabwe. We have three long temperature series from unadjusted GHCN located in the black triangle:

And here their quite similar temperature trends for the 3 stations:

And by true Hadcrut magic abra-cadabra-alla-gazim: The historic heat is gone…. ?!

Another interesting point I find fair to mention is the general overall temperature of this planet 60N – 90 N.
Here are Russian trends. (50-60N especially in the European Russia appears adjusted strongly it seems, will be updated).
Notice Russia 60N-90N:

For almost the entire period of “global warming”, The Russia (incl Siberia) 60-90N has not been warmer than in previous long warm peak. Just few recent years is slightly warmer.
And then Greenland, also located 60-90N:

Same picture.
Iceland:

Same picture
Central and northern Sweden:

Northern Finland:

The point? All land area on this Earth 60N-90N Except for Canada (have not analysed Canada temperatures yet) hardly shows any warming in recent years compared to previous long warm peak.
For Greenland I showed, that a longer period of compare (20 year average) still has Greenland warmer in 1930-45 than today:

Atlantic (Oceanic) influence on temperature trends:
For Especially Denmark, Netherlands, South Africa and the North African Atlantic coast I have focussed on the difference on temperature trends directly on the coasts and the non-coastal series, Morocco:

Periods of warming are simply not reflected well using North Atlantic coastal stations. Europe is generally warmer during periods of western winds, but in these periods, the Atliantic coastal stations are affected more by Atlantic water temperatures.
An explanation of the above from RUTI scandinavia:

Just as Ocean-coastal temperature stations, then temperature stations on icy mountain peaks appears to show different temperature trends than the surroundings, at least for the Alps:

Non the less, from hadcrut and CHGN we have higher concentration of long rural data series available for the European Alps than any other area of Europe...
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Last changed: 7th July, 2011 at 22:12:45
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Kevin Trenberth to Michael Mann, Oct 12, 2009:
The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t. The CERES data published in the August BAMS 09 supplement on 2008 shows there should be even more warming: but the data are surely wrong. Our observing system is inadequate.
Kevin Trenberth to Tom Wigley, Oct 14, 2009
Hi Tom
How come you do not agree with a statement that says we are no where close to knowing where
energy is going or whether clouds are changing to make the planet brighter. We are not
close to balancing the energy budget. The fact that we can not account for what is
happening in the climate system makes any consideration of geoengineering quite hopeless as
we will never be able to tell if it is successful or not! It is a travesty!
Kevin
Leo Tolstoy
“I know that most men, including those at ease with problems of the greatest complexity, can seldom accept even the simplest and most obvious truth if it be such as would oblige them to admit the falsity of conclusions which they have delighted in explaining to colleagues, which they have proudly taught to others, and which they have woven, thread by thread, into the fabric of their lives.”
Phil Jones
“We have 25 or so years invested in the work. Why should I make the data available to you, when your aim is to try and find something wrong with it.” -
Phil Jones to Michael Mann Feb 21, 2005:
The IPCC comes in for a lot of stick.
Leave it to you to delete as appropriate !
Cheers
Phil
PS I'm getting hassled by a couple of people to release the CRU station temperature data.
Don't any of you three tell anybody that the UK has a Freedom of Information Act !
Tom Wigley to Phil Jones Sep 27, 2009:
If you look at the attached plot you will see that the
land also shows the 1940s blip (as I'm sure you know).
So, if we could reduce the ocean blip by, say, 0.15 degC,
then this would be significant for the global mean — but
we'd still have to explain the land blip.
I've chosen 0.15 here deliberately. This still leaves an
ocean blip, and i think one needs to have some form of
ocean blip to explain the land blip (via either some common
forcing, or ocean forcing land, or vice versa, or all of
these). When you look at other blips, the land blips are
1.5 to 2 times (roughly) the ocean blips — higher sensitivity
plus thermal inertia effects. My 0.15 adjustment leaves things
consistent with this, so you can see where I am coming from.
Removing ENSO does not affect this.
It would be good to remove at least part of the 1940s blip,
but we are still left with "why the blip".
Let me go further. If you look at NH vs SH and the aerosol
effect (qualitatively or with MAGICC) then with a reduced
ocean blip we get continuous warming in the SH, and a cooling
in the NH — just as one would expect with mainly NH aerosols.
The other interesting thing is (as Foukal et al. note — from
MAGICC) that the 1910-40 warming cannot be solar. The Sun can
get at most 10% of this with Wang et al solar, less with Foukal
solar. So this may well be NADW, as Sarah and I noted in 1987
(and also Schlesinger later). A reduced SST blip in the 1940s
makes the 1910-40 warming larger than the SH (which it
currently is not) — but not really enough.
So ... why was the SH so cold around 1910? Another SST problem?
(SH/NH data also attached.)
This stuff is in a report I am writing for EPRI, so I'd
appreciate any comments you (and Ben) might have.
Tom.
Tim Osborn to Michael Mann and Ian Macadam , Oct 5, 1999:
Dear Mike and Ian
Keith has asked me to send you a timeseries for the IPCC multi-proxy
reconstruction figure, to replace the one you currently have. The data are
attached to this e-mail. They go from 1402 to 1995, although we usually
stop the series in 1960 because of the recent non-temperature signal that
is superimposed on the tree-ring data that we use. I haven't put a 40-yr
smoothing through them - I thought it best if you were to do this to ensure
the same filter was used for all curves.
Keith Briffa:
Briffa:
> For the record, I do believe that the proxy data do show unusually
>warm conditions in recent decades. I am not sure that this unusual warming
>is so clear in the summer responsive data. I believe that the recent warmth
>was probably matched about 1000 years ago. I do not believe that global
>mean annual temperatures have simply cooled progressively over thousands of
>years as Mike appears to and I contend that that there is strong evidence
>for major changes in climate over the Holocene (not Milankovich) that
>require explanation and that could represent part of the current or future
>background variability of our climate. I think the Venice meeting will be
>a good place to air these isssues.