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The perplexing temperature data published 1974-84 and recent temperature data.

Posted by Frank Lansner (frank) on 12th July, 2010
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The perplexing temperature data published 1974-84 and recent temperature data.

 
In this writing I aim to explore the best (latest) temperature data published before the global warming movement grew strong in the mid 1980´ies. Thus, my focus is mostly the rather modern temperature data published 1974-84. These temperature data I will refer to as “the original temperature data”. I will then compare these original temperature data with the modern versions (from CRU, Hadley, GISS and NOAA etc.) to learn what ever can be learned.
Due to the availability and quality of data, temperatures of the Northern Hemisphere 1930-80 are the main focus of this writing.
 
In 2007 the IPCC actually did a similar compare between older temperature data and then temperature data of more recent data from the hand of CRU, Hansen, Jones. IPCC published this graphic showing a number of quite old (pre 1960) temperatures series covering different large areas of the globe:
 
 
fig 1.
 
The IPCC then was then able to conclude:
IPCC: “While the data and the analysis techniques have changed over time, all the time series show a high degree of consistency since 1900.”.  
 
IPCC finds a consistency worth mentioning despite different areas, data coverage and methods. Older data seems to suppor newer data and vice versa.
 
So why examine the correlation between old and new temperature data again in this writing?
- Because the best and latest pre-global-warming temperature data published 1974-84 are not included in the IPCC graphic and thus, the latest data the IPCC graphic displays (except for Hansen and Jones publications 1986-87) ends as early as 1960.
 
 
fig 2.
 
To illustrate what appears to be missing in the IPCC graphic to the left, a row of original temperature data 1974-84 are shown to the right. Just like the IPCC graphic on the left, the graphic on the right are all large areas of the globe, mostly Northern Hemisphere, but the original temperature series proceeds to around 1980 in stead of ending in 1960. (The fat blue line in both graphics is the Bodyko and the extension represented by Angel and Korshover data. I have highlighted this dataset because the Bodyko data is used in both graphics and thus, this dataset allows us to verify that the compare of the 2 graphics is fair. The Angel-Korshover data set is quite representative for other NH graphs 1958-80. In the right graphic, the Bodyko-Angel-Korshover is shown with 5 years running mean.)
 

Goto full artcle part 1 - 4:

PART 1

PART 2

PART 3

PART 4

 

Contents:

(Part 1)
1) Introduction
 1.1) The “divergence problem”
 1.2) The 95% confidence limit from CRU / Phil Jones
 1.3) The “perplexing” cooling 1930´ies – 1970´ies … not so “perplexing” anymore?
2) Reasons to reject original temperature/unadjusted data
 2.1) Reasons that - according to CRU, NOAA, GISS etc. - leads to significant warmer temperature trend.
(Part 2)
3) Presentation of some of the temperature data sets used.
 3.1) Angel and Korshover 1975
 3.2) Chen 1982
 3.3) Folland 1984 / Ocean temperatures
 3.4) Hansen 81
 3.5) Jones 82
 3.6) Vinnikov1980
 3.7) Yamamoto 1975
(Part 3)
4) NH temperature ensemble anomalies
 4.1) Land-Air Temperature minimum and Ocean-Water Temperature minimum
 4.2) Natural influences on NH temperatures
5) Other temperature series
 5.1) NCEP and ERA-40 temperatures
 5.2) ERA-40
 5.3) Temperature Proxies
 5.4) RATPAC
6) Estimate of NH Land temperatures
(Part 4)
7) Estimate of NH Land+Sea temperatures 1900 - today
8) The Land-Ocean temperature equilibrium, and UHI.
9) How much land area is there on the Northern Hemisphere?
10) Final words

Last changed: 13th July, 2010 at 15:50:37

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Comments

Paste-iche By Unknown on 4th January, 2011 at 19:18:24
Amazing what you can do when you cut-and-paste different data sets!

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