Latest News (hidethedecline)

Birger Wedendahl,
Cand.Scient. geography.
wedendahl@hotmail.com

The Weather Drives the Climate.

Danish and International Climate Experts Agree that Clouds and not CO2 Govern the Climate.

“Climate Forecast” for The Pacific and The Atlantic Ocean:
Clear and calm at dawn. Light morning winds, clouding up towards noon. In the afternoon, increasing clouds and winds with a chance of showers and thunderstorms as the storms develop. Clearing around or after sunset, with an occasional thunderstorm after dark. Progressive clearing until dawn. (Willis Eshenbach, The climate thermostat) 

Clouds and “The Faint Sun Paradox”.

Professor of geology, Minik Rosing, Natural Museum of Denmark, has recently published  an article: “No Climate Paradox under the Faint Early Sun” Nature 464 744-747 in which he discusses The Faint Sun Paradox. In his research paper Professor Rosing et al.  debunks CO2 as an all time greenhouse gas. Studying very old rocks and minerals he proves that CO2 levels never exceeded 1000 ppm.
 Professor Rosing explains that the temperatures in the Tropics were at the same level as today because the cloud cover was thinner than today.. In the seventies Carl Sagan explained how a faint sun with only 75% power of today insolation, because of enormous amount of CO2 in the atmosphere (30%), could warm the Earth to a level that compares with the warming of today.
( Richard Lindzen  has proved that even high levels of CO2 could not result in a strong greenhouse effect because the effect decreases logarithmic with the concentration of CO2.)
Rosing is in line with a lot of Danish climate experts ( Professor of Physical Geography, Ole Humlum, Senior Scientist  at DTU Space Jens Olaf Pepke Pedersen, Director of Danish National Space Center Eigil Friis Christensen and Professor Director of the Center for Sun-Climate Research at DTU Space Henrik Svensmark) as well as international experts (Dr.Roy Spencer, Professor Richard Lindzen,  Dr.John Christy) who all agree that clouds are a much stronger factor controlling climate than CO2.

On a global scale you only have minor climate change.

In a way it makes no sense to talk about Global Climate Change. Climate in its original version is about regional differences in temperature, precipitation, wind and weather so to speak. Climate change is primarily closely connected to higher latitudes where we have ice ages coming and going. Surprisingly while we had ice age in the Scandinavian Countries 12 degrees colder than now,  temperatures around Equator during the same period were only 1-2 degrees Celsius colder than today. Foraminifera found in seafloor drillings prove this. One might wonder why the climate has been this stable despite volcanic eruptions, meteors and orbital changes (Milankovitch). It is therefore a Must to find out what mechanism can explain  the “steady state” of the climate. For as long as 80 million. years in Cretaceous the climate was very stable.

Clouds have an enormous effect on climate.

Even small changes in cloud cover have a significant impact on the Earth Energy Balance. A reduction in cloud cover with as little as 1% equals  doubling  the actual concentration of CO2.
The formation of clouds is the greatest Joker in our understanding of human induced global warming.  Essex and Mc Kitric (Taken by Storm,2002) compare the effects of clouds on climate with the key of a motorcar. It is an on/ off thing and not to be compared with a calorimeter which slowly warms and cools in a laboratory. The Albedo Effect explains why volcanism and meteor impact has resulted in mass extinction and potentially can do it again.

Climate Research, Cloud Theory and Climate Battle.

Richard Lindzen  is the man behind the so called Iris Hypothesis.
According to Lindzen warming results in a reduction of the Cirrus clouds thereby cooling the Earth.
Cirrus clouds are very cold on the top which means they radiate only a small amount of energy to space.

Dr.Roy Spencer talks about internally forced natural climate variation. He focuses on the lower clouds which have a cooling effect (Altostrato and Altocumulus).They cover vast areas. Their surfaces are  warmer on the top, radiating  a lot of energy into space. According to Spencer changes in cloud cover caused by PDO (El Nino-La Nina) explains 75% of the warming taking place  this century.

Svensmark et al. explain cloud forming  by cosmic rays. Cosmic rays from space governed by magnetic fields from the sun ionises  aerosols . They are thereby transformed into effective condensation nuclei facilitating  the formation of clouds and precipitation.

Willis Eshenbach has reinvented the Thermostat Hypothesis.
Willis Eschenbach describes himself as an autodidact amateur climatologist or climate cowboy.
He has made an outstanding  and easily understandable  description of the theory on www.wattsupwiththat.com and made a speech at the latest Heartland Conference www.heartland.org  . The Warmists might think this is disqualifying  by itself, but nevertheless the theory is very convincing and not controversial at all.

Willis focuses on the ITCZ. The Inter Tropical Convergence Zone is the vast area where the trade winds meet over Equator following the Suns/Earths movements year round. On their way to ITCZ the winds collect a lot of water vapour. Low density caused by warming from the sea surface makes the air convect and  water vapour starts condensing and accelerates the convection even further. A lot of cumulus and cumulonimbus clouds are formed. The process involves an extreme negative feedback.

 
Fig 1. Willis, wattsupwiththat.com

Cumulonimbus:  Negative Feedback.

According to Willis www.wattsupwiththat.com    feed back processes are:

a. Reflection from both the top and the sides of the great cloud.
b. Vertical convection with speeds of 200km/hour transports heat to the top where it is radiated to space.
c. Sea surface evaporates as wind speeds up and spray is in the air. Evaporation costs a lot of energy. This energy is latent energy  which in the condensation process fuels and accelerates the convection.
d. The waves reflect more energy.
e. Falling rain cools the sea.
f. Dry sinking air on the sides of the cell increases evaporation
g. The clear sky at night time enforces outgoing long wave radiation.

 
Fig2. Willis Wattsupwiththat.com

From 10.00 to 11.30 am the cloud formation raises the Albedo from 0.30 to 0.38 decreasing the insolation  by  60watt/m2. For more information read the full article.

Conclusion:

Climate change in the short and long perspective:

1. Hundreds of years: PDO, sea currents and cloud formation explains internally forced chaotic climate variability.
2. Thousands of years: Orbital changes explains glacials and interglacials at high latitudes caused by changes in solar radiation ; Milankovitch Cycles. At lower latitudes ITCZ thermostat reigns.
3. Millions of years: ITCZ thermostat and reduced cloud formation compensate a faint sun.

A New Paradigm

If clouds control  the weather and  the climate and also outperform a minor effect from human induced CO then it  is nothing less than a new paradigm  which will revolutionise our view on fossil fuels.

Hopefully, it will give poor countries access to cheap energy which is as important for their prosperous future as it was a complete fundament for our own industrialisation and civilisation. May it happen!

Last changed: 2nd December, 2010 at 21:29:30

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